It is very unlikely that the outcome of the 2006 presidential election will be anything other than luka remaining in power till his death. Even as we speak many plans are being created and executed to make certain of this. The “Proposed” changes to the criminal code is a very obvious example, its almost completely written just to make that the opposition doesn’t stand a chance. (See http://www.br23.net/en/2005/11/28/world-war-three/ )

I have read, that DW-World broadcasts in Russian, not in Belarusian, and I think, that’s reason to ask why they do so (I guess, they just don’t have any people speaking belarus) and how to change it. Have you contacted responsible people at DW-World? Did you get an answer?

I couldn’t see, that christ-demokrats in Europe would hae taken other action. In fact, Uta Zapf demands to act together with EU against the Lukashenka regime, so that Europe speaks with one voice and has more power.

Mykola Statkevich is well known among German social demokrats. I think, his opinion influents politics of german social democrats more than other things. It might be not such a stupid strategy to talk with authorities to develop things like in Kiev and not like in Peking. I’m convinced, that German social demokrats do want a change in Belarus and do not take care for Putin disagreeing to this.

I hope, Belarus opposition will find financial support as Ukrainian opposition found it. The Zubr website does already look quite well. I hope, they will win against Lukashanka.

Bei Statler und Waldorf bin ich über www.br23.net gestolpert, ein politisches Weblog in englischer Sprache aus Minsk, Belarus.
Zu Belarus hatte ich im Parteibuch schon einmal anläßlich der Inhaftierung von Mykola Statkevich wegen der Organisation…

> German SPD and Uta Zapf see the Belorussian government truly as what it is

Actions speak louder than words. And Schröder years showed very clearly what kind of position Germany has toward Belarus. It can be summarized in two words: (1) Either ignore Belarus question or (2) Or leave all to Putin, the best friend (which is the same as point #1).

It seemed, that Christian democrats were more keen on supporting democracy and freedom in Belarus. But now we probably will never find out, because they didn’t really win the elections, and we have a grand coalition.

> I am quite sure, that George Soros and friends are going to finance

George Soros has totally withdrawn from Belarus, since he was kicked out in 1996 by Lukashenka. The only money his foundation provides for Belarus are several dozen of yearly scholarships for different education programs (for example, CEU in Hungary or AUBG in Bulgaria).

> What do you think about Mikola Statkevich?

I think he’s quite OK. Lukashenka is definetely very afraid of him.

Although I personally can’t imagine him as a top opposition leader (in fact, none of them seem to be the kind of people who are capable to beat Lukashenka in current circumstances)

I am convinced, that German SPD and Uta Zapf see the Belorussian government truly as what it is: a gang of murders occupying government control. Her statement I would sort in some kind of the meaning, that it might not make life more easy to say a suspect that you want him to sit for a lifetime, before you arrested him. Better tell him that after you got him, so you have a better chance to get him peacefully. I am quite sure, that George Soros and friends are going to finance a revolution in Belorus like in Ukraine.

I would expect Uta Zapf to have been influenced in her opinion by Mikola Statkevich. What do you think about Mikola Statkevich?

> I think Uta Zapf is quite sure that Lukashenka will stay in power after 2006-until death.

To be honest I think the same. Despite many people wanting him gone, he and his regime are sure doing their bests to stay in power. Being in control of the law makes things very easy for them. Those proposed modifications are proof of it. Things are becoming a time bomb, sooner or later things are going to erupt into violence. The only way Belarus is going at the moment is global isolation or reunification with Russia.

http://www.belarusnews.de/politik1297-.html

“[ SPD-Bundestagsfraktion ] - Zu den Aeusserungen des Unionspolitikers Georg Schirmbeck erklaert die stellvertretende Sprecherin der Arbeitsgruppe Aussenpolitik der SPD-Bundestagsfraktion und Vorsitzende der deutsch-belarussischen Parlamentariergruppe, Uta Zapf:

Wer, ehe die Arbeit des Bundestages richtig begonnen hat, neue Strategien in der Aussenpolitik gegenueber Weissrussland verkuendet, vergisst, dass die grosse Koalition gemeinsam entscheidet.

Der Deutsche Bundestag ist bisher in seiner Politik gegenueber Weissrussland sehr einig gewesen. Unsere Kritik am zunehmend repressiven Regime von Praesident Lukaschenko war und ist einmuetig. Die Beschluesse des Bundestages sind immer gemeinsam gefasst worden.

Es kann aber nicht zielfuehrend sein, jetzt ploetzlich den Dialog mit der Administration und den Parlamentariern einzustellen und stattdessen den grossen Knueppel herauszuholen.

Ohne diesen Dialog und unsere Unterstuetzung fuer die Demokratisierung des Landes werden wir die Menschen in diesem Lande im Stich lassen.

Wir brauchen eine Dialogpolitik, die ohne Umschweife die berechtigte Kritik formuliert und gleichzeitig die zivile Gesellschaft und die demokratisch gesinnten Oppositionspolitiker unterstuetzt.

Die Europaeische Union hat bei ihrem letzten Rat umfangreiche Massnahmen beschlossen, die eine solche Politik des Dialogs, der Unterstuetzung von Demokratisierung des Landes und moderate Sanktionen beinhaltet. Deutsche Osteuropapolitik hat sich stets eng mit den europaeischen Partnern abgestimmt. Dabei soll es bleiben.

Harte Worte werden keinen Dialog befoerdern, der langfristig geeignet ist, auch Weissrussland an Europa und seine demokratischen Werte heranzufuehren.”

I’m actually quite confused. What does she mean my dialog? When was the last time Lukashenka people had a meaningful dialog with European politicians? Can Uta Zapf give a concrete date?

http://www.svaboda.org/articlesfeatures/politics/2005/11/154A67FC-488E-452A-BD1C-66959F1BDDFD.html

But I’ll try to locate the original…