Visiting the European Union
In the last two days there were lots of news about our main opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich everywhere (”Guardian”, “New York Times”, “EU Observer”, “Voice of America”, RFE/RL, CBS News just to name a few), so you probably heard that he’s in Brussels, meeting quite a few top EU officials, including the top official — the chief of the European Commission — whom he’s meeting today, on Febrary 1.
There are good news and bad news.
1) The good news is that there never have been meetings with opposition leaders from Belarus at such a high level in European Union. This means, EU is really serious about supporting our opposition and, namely, Alexander Milinkevich.
2) The bad news is that this support will probably consist mainly of empty pathetic words (just like it’s been in the past — numerous empty “resolutions”). In reality, EU has always been very tolerant about mister Lukashenka, expressing concern only verbally, never taking any concrete action, politically or economically.
3) I can already provide a wonderful example of EU way of handing situations, with the issue of entry visas. Milinkevich asked EU leaders to simplify visa procedures for simple Belarus citizens so they could travel to Europe easier, while extending a “black list” of high-rank Lukashenka officials. This idea was strongly supported by Lithuanian and Polish members of the European Parliament. Alas, EU leaders totally disregarded this request.
Over all, in the last months, as EU officials talk about brining freedom and democracy to Belarus, Western European embassies kept tightening the rules for visa applicants and increasing visa fees, so it is actually getting more and more difficult for an average Belarus citizen to visit Western Europe.
4) Good news is that Angela Merkel personally invited Alexander Milinkevich to Berlin, and he’s going there in a couple days.
5) And, finally, “bad news” is that Milinkevich will have to fight for votes inside Belarus, not in Brussels or Berlin. Maybe, this time could’ve been wiser spent inside the country, going to small towns and villages, meeting all those simple people who have no political culture or understanding…
February 2nd, 2006 at 12:40 pm
Milinkevich is playing into Lukashenko’s hands by courting the heads of the EU, instead of the Belarusian people themselves. This was all but inevitable considering the ‘united opposition’ candidate was suggested by the US ambassador to Belarus, and again, not by the Belarusian people.
What needs to be understood is that Lukashenko does have genuine support, and that the Council of Europe, or the USA (as provided by the Belarus Democracy Act) simply giving money and recognition to the opposition will not win an election.
February 2nd, 2006 at 1:06 pm
Stewart, he is NOT registered in Belarus as a candidate yet, so he has no right no campaign inside Belarus (he’d be taken down by Electoral Committee if he did). So I think he’s using his time wisely.
February 2nd, 2006 at 9:23 pm
Correct he cannot campaign for president, but he can speak to people, and quite legally do so with the camera crews etc. (to collect the 100,000 signiatures, he must need to do a degree of campaigning!) The new laws against criticising the government are strict, but do specify that it is unsubstantiated claims or lies which are prohibited. Milinkevich is not stupid, and should not fall into any traps, and yet by promoting himself abroad first, he is apparently doing just that.
February 2nd, 2006 at 9:32 pm
I still think that was the best time for such a visit (and it’s really cool that he got such a warm welcome there).
As for signature collection, it finished on January 27. So it is a kind of hiatus now in the presidential campaign. And if he does something nowdays inside Belarus, they might not register him by classifying his activity as “illegal campaigning” or something…
After all, it’s cat and mouse kind of game. And I think so far Milinkevich is playing a very smart mouse game. But, still just a mouse, unfortunately. :(